基于改善紧急疏散网络流通能力的仿真研究

紧急疏散网络中由于流动方向的不可控,极易在某些节点处发生堵塞,堵塞时的饱和流值有多样性和随机性的特点,饱和流是研究随机流动情况下网络流通性能的重要参数.为改善网络的流通能力,本文提出了两种网络改造方案,分别利用随机流动仿真试验得出不同改造对网络饱和流的概率分布的影响,利用网络期望流通值与随机饱和流的偏方差值两个评价指标对改造过程进行分析比较,分别找出两种改造的最佳方案;最后分析了这两种改造方案在实际中应用的可能性.

Simulation Research on Improving the Flow Capability of Emergency Networks

The flow is easily blocked at some nodes in the emergency network.The saturated flow is diversified and stochastic.It is one of the important indices for studying the flow capability of the network under the stochastic flow.To improve the flow capability of the network and reduce the occurrence of blockage,two reconstructed methods are proposed in this paper.The probability distributions of the different saturated flows are obtained by the simulation model.The processing of the two reconstructed methods is analyzed using the two evaluating indicators,i.e.the expected flow of network and the bias-variance of saturated flow.Accordingly,the optimal reconstructing process is proposed.The applied foreground of the two scenarios are analyzed in the end.