A semiparametric multilevel survival model

Summary.  We propose a semiparametric multilevel survival model for clustered duration data in which the effect of a continuous covariate is represented by an unspecified, possibly non-linear, function. This model makes no distributional assumption about the cluster level random effects. The performance of the method is assessed via Monte Carlo simulations. The model is applied in an analysis of first-birth intervals in Bangladesh to examine period effects in the timing of first births, while allowing for clustering within communities; the analysis reveals a non-linear trend in the first-birth interval over time.