自然灾害、人口压力与清代农民起义

通过理论和实证研究，检验清代农民起义的诱因。首先介绍清代气候、人口与民族、农业技术的历史背景。然后建立人口、产量、饥荒与起义的理论模型，讨论发生自然灾害和赈灾情况下的动态均衡，并进行案例分析。最后通过计量分析，分析了自然灾害、人口数量和增殖率、饥荒、赈灾在农民起义中的作用。研究表明，导致农民起义的直接因素是饥荒。对饥荒的赈灾能显著地降低农民起义的发生概率；自然灾害的系数不显著，其滞后项系数显著但不稳健；人口数量对农民战争的作用显著为正，但人口增殖率对农民战争的作用显著为负；米价指数对农民战争的作用不显著。

Natural Disasters, Population Pressure and Peasant Uprisings in the Qing Dynasty

Through theoretical and empirical research, we reexamined the causes of peasant uprising in the Qing Dynasty. First, we introduced the background of climate, population and nation, agricultural technology in the Qing dynasty. Second, we set up a theoretical model of population, output, famine and uprising, discussed the dynamic equilibrium under natural disasters and relief, and made case analysis. Finally, through quantitative analysis, we reanalyzed the role of natural disasters, population size and growth rate, famine and relief in the peasant uprising. The research shows that the direct factor of the peasant uprising is famine, and the famine relief can significantly reduce the probability of the peasant uprising; the coefficient of natural disaster is not significant, the coefficient of the lag term is significant but not robust; the effect of the population size on the peasant war is significantly positive, but the effect of the population growth rate on the peasant war is significantly negative; the effect of the rice price index on the peasants war is not significant.