基才服务业增长理论的旅游业增长研究

20世纪末发达国家陆续步入“服务经济”，服务业的快速增长已经成为公认的经济现实。经济学家对于服务业增长的理论解释主要包括服务业劳动生产率停滞、服务需求增长和服务市场化三大因素。旅游业是服务业的龙头产业，旅游业的增长可以放到服务业增长的理论框架中进行研究。旅游业的劳动生产率最终将趋于停滞，劳动力将持续流向旅游业以满足需求的增长。中国旅游业的价格上涨仅略高于国民经济整体的价格上涨幅度，旅游业占经济比重的增长绝大部分来自“真实”的最终需求增长。服务市场化能从统计上拉高旅游业的比重，它既能够促使游客在旅游过程中购买更多的服务，也能促进各种旅游资源的发展以吸引游客。

The Growth of Tourism from the Perspective of Service Growth Theory

The developed countries had entered the age of ＂Service Economy＂by the end of the 20th century. The fast growth of the service industries is a well - known economic fact. The explanations from the economists for the growth of service industries are the stagnation of the productivity of service industries, the growth of service de- mand, and the marketization of services. Tourism is the pillar industry of service industries, and the growth of tour- ism can be studied within the theoretical framework of the growth of service industries. The productivity of tourism will eventually stagnate, and the labor force will constantly flow into tourism to meet the growing needs. The rise of the price in tourism is slightly higher than that in the economy of China as a whole. Most of the growth of tourism＇ s share in GDP is from the ＂real＂ growth of demand. The marketization of personal services can push forward the nominal growth of tourism. Further, it can cause the tourists to purchase more services during their journeys, and can also promote the development of more tourist resources.