国防R&D、通用目的技术与经济增长

研究国防R&D支出对经济增长影响的经济理论需要结合技术演化理论，明晰国防部门在技术演化进程中的作用特点。技术发展史分析表明，历史上引致重大技术变革的通用目的技术（GPT）的发明，通常源自国防部门的研发努力，而随着技术演化进程由起步期逐渐迈入成熟期，国防和民用部门中同一GPT的技术轨道将由于部门间技术需求的差异而呈现出先趋同后分化的特征。据此，在GPT增长框架中正式建模分析国防R&D对经济增长的长期影响及主要机制，并通过数值模拟证明，"军民并举"的国家科技资源配置模式在长期中能够实现最优的经济增长绩效。在中国逐步接近国际技术前沿的背景下，继续加大国防研发支出，完善军民科技融合体制机制，将成为中国推动创新驱动发展的重要举措。

Defense R&D,General Purpose Technology and Economic Growth

Analysis of the impact of defense R&D on economic growth must take into account the theory of technology evolution. The history of technology development shows that the inventions of general purpose technology(GPT)in history often can be attributed to R&D endeavors of national defense departments. Although with the dual-use character, the GPT''s technological trajectories in the defense and civilian sectors start with convergence, and then they will become more and more divergent as technology matures. Based on these insights, a formal GPT-driven model was constructed to analyze the impact of defense R&D on economic growth. Numerical simulation shows that due to a more balanced resources allocation between defense and civilian fundamental research sectors, civilian-military integration national science and technology resources allocation mode can achieve the best growth performance in the long term. Today, China is approaching the international technology frontier. To accelerate and smooth the transition into an innovation-driven economy, it is necessary for China to increase the defense R&D outlay continuously and build a well-functioning military-civilian integrated technology base.