政策方向、经济周期与货币政策效力非对称性

货币政策在治理1998年后的通货紧缩中表现出来的明显弱效与此前在治理通货膨胀中的显著效果形成了鲜明对比,货币政策效力非对称性问题引起了国内政策和理论部门的关注。货币政策效力的非对称性主要是指货币政策效力在政策方向上的非对称性和在经济周期上的非对称性。基于经验检验结果,本文发现中国扩张性的货币政策对产出没有影响,紧缩性的货币政策能够有效影响产出,货币政策效力存在政策方向上的非对称性;紧缩性货币政策效力对时间因素非常敏感,只在短期内对产出具有显著的影响;经济周期因素对货币政策作用于实际产出的效果没有影响,货币政策效力不存在经济周期上的非对称性。

The Policy Direction,Business Cycles and Asymmetry of the Effects of Monetary Policies

The obvious weak effect manifested in the process of currency deflation that was generated by the monetary policy since 1988 contrasted sharply with the obvious effect that had been produced in the process of controlling inflation before 1988.Therefore,the asymmetry of the effect of monetary policy has drawn attention of domestic governmental departments responsible for policy making and of the academic circle.The asymmetry of the effects of monetary policies mainly means that on the policy direction and on the business circle.Based on the empirical study,we have discovered that,in China,the expansionary monetary policy has no effect on output whereas the contractive monetary policy can effectively impact on output and the effect of monetary policy possesses asymmetry in policy direction,that the effect of disinflation policy is very sensitive to the factor of time and this policy has noticeable impact only in the short run,that the business circle has no bearing on the actual effect produced by the monetary policy,and that the efficiency of the monetary policy has no asymmetry in terms of the business circle.