THE PREDICTABILITY OF COLLEGE FINANCIAL AID OFFERS: EVIDENCE FROM THE CLASS OF 1972 |
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| Authors: | Gary T. Barnes John L. Neufeld |
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| Affiliation: | *The General Administration of the University of North Carolina and the University of North Carolina at Greensboro. Support for this research was received from the U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare under contract #HEW 100-78-0028. The content of this article does not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Department of Health, Education and Welfare. We gratefully acknowledge the helpful comments of Barry Hirsch and of anonymous referees but retain sole responsibilities for remaining errors. |
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| Abstract: | Two aid predictor models (binomial logit/regression and Tobit) were fitted to the subset of aid applicants from the National Longitudinal Survey of the High School Class of 1972 who had been accepted for admission by at least one college. Although undergraduate financial aid programs are designed to compensate for financial need, variables related to financial need were found to be relatively poor predictors of college aid offers and the inclusion of "non-need" variables did not measurably improve the predictive power of the model. These results suggest that disbursement of financial aid funds through college aid offices in 1972 was both inefficient and inequitable. |
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