中国外汇储备积累动机的动态研究

分别从时间与状态两个维度对1994—2013年间中国外汇储备的积累动机进行动态研究,得到以下结论:2005年汇改前,重商主义动机在外汇储备积累动机中占据绝对主导地位,引致储备大量积累;汇改后,其影响力度下降,但仍是促使储备积累的重要力量,影响力高于交易性动机和预防性动机。此后,基数庞大的外汇储备在惯性作用下保持稳定增长,形成了当下巨额的外汇储备。政策建议如下:深入推进市场经济改革,加快国内经济结构和产业结构调整,转变经济增长方式;深化人民币汇率形成机制改革,不断增强汇率机制灵活性;在此基础上控制外汇储备增长速度。

A Dynamic Study on The Motives of China's Foreign Exchange Reserves Accumulation

Dynamic research are carried out on the motives of China＇s foreign exchange reserves accumulation from the dimension of time and state respectively. Conclusions are as follows ： Before Renminbi exchange rate regime reform in 2005, mercantilism dominated the motives of foreign exchange reserves accumulation, inducing the hoard- ing of reserves by China; After that, the influence of mercantilism declined, while it＇s still an important impetus driving the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves and its importance exceeds that of trade and precautionary motives. Since then, the foreign exchange reserves with huge basis have remaining stable growth under inertia, contributing to the observed foreign exchange reserves surge. Policy suggestions are as follows： The market economic reform should be pushed forward further, the adjustment of domestic economic and industrial structure should be accelerated, and the means of economic growth should be transformed; The authority should deepen the Renminbi exchange rate regime reform and increase its flexibility; The growth rate of foreign exchange reserves should be controlled on the basis of these suggestions.