| 基于Monte Carlo 的 CLV 改进模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 蒋玉石,史本山.基于Monte Carlo 的 CLV 改进模型研究[J].西南交通大学学报(社会科学版),2007,8(1):120-124. |
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| 作者姓名： | 蒋玉石 史本山 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 西南交通大学,经济管理学院,四川,成都,610031;四川师范大学,计算机科学学院,四川,成都,610068
2. 西南交通大学,经济管理学院,四川,成都,610031 |
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| 摘 要： | 顾客终生价值(CLV)模型有助于企业管理者识别营销渠道中的关键顾客,从而更有效地利用有限资源。但传统的CLV模型大多存在着明显的局限性,因为它们多是根据顾客过去的购买模式或者人口统计学特征来推断顾客未来行为和顾客未来的盈利能力,不能很好地反映出顾客价值的波动趋势。而将蒙特卡洛分析法运用到CLV模型中,能较好地反映影响CLV的多种因素,使模型更符合实情。
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| 关 键 词： | Monte Carlo模拟 顾客终生价值 顾客识别 |
| 文章编号： | 1009-4474(2007)01-0120-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年10月19 |
A Study of Improved CLV Model Based on Monte Carlo |
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| JIANG Yu-shi,SHI Ben-shan.A Study of Improved CLV Model Based on Monte Carlo[J].Journal of Southwest Jiaotong Universit(Social Science Edition),2007,8(1):120-124. |
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| Authors: | JIANG Yu-shi SHI Ben-shan |
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| Abstract: | The CLV model is conducive to enterprise's identification of key customers in the marketing and therefore the limited resources can be better exploited.Most of current CLV models have apparent limitations in that they infer the customer's future behaviors and profit-making ability according to the customer's past purchase mode or features of demography,so these models fail to reflect the fluctuating tendency of customer value.This paper applies Monte Carlo to CLV model and concludes that the improved model can demonstrate multiple factors influencing the CLV in a more effective way. |
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| Keywords: | Monte Carlo model customer lifetime value(CLV) customer identification |
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