微观结构视角下人民币汇率形成机制改革探讨

传统的汇率决定理论不能对我国1994年以来的汇率水平做出很好的解释,外汇市场微观结构理论从市场微观结构角度分析汇率的决定和短期波动的原因,为分析外汇汇率的短期决定和波动提供了一个全新的视角.该理论的分析思路可以较好地解释1994年我国外汇体制改革以来人民币超稳定之原因,同时也能帮助我们探讨人民币汇率制度进一步改革的思路和对策.

The Reform of RMB Exchange Rate Mechanism in the Market Microstructure Perspective

The traditional exchange rate theory can no longer explain the radical fluctuations of the exchange rates.In 1990s,the market microstructure theory of foreign exchange was used to explain the fluctuations of the exchange rates and proved effective in empirical tests.It became a focus of attention with researchers.With insights into the participation body,transaction mechanism and main parts of transaction in the exchange market,it offered an analysis of the factors that caused radical fluctuations in the exchange rates.It provided us with an insight in analyzing the exchange rates.The analytic thinking of the theory can well serve as an interpretation of the stability of the RMB exchange rate ever since the foreign exchange system reform began in 1994.China's foreign exchange market is a double-track market consisting of a wholesale market among designated foreign exchange banks and a retail market between banks and customers(enterprises and individuals).Obviously,there exists a gap between the two markets.The main parts of the transactions in the two markets are very similar in terms of transaction volumes and the nature of property right.In the wholesale market,the operating rooms of state-owned banks and the central bank possess the majority of the transaction volume,while in the retail market,state-owned enterprises and state-held companies possess the majority of the transaction volume.Therefore,we can see that the main parts of transactions in the two markets are either state-owned or state-held.The market transaction variety is still far behind the requirement of the marketization of the exchange rates.Based on this analysis,we can draw a conclusion that a foreign exchange market exists and it is easy to put it under control.This explains the stability of the RMB exchange rate since the foreign exchange system reform started in 1994.However,we have to admit that the negative effects of maintaining nominal exchange rates of RMB are becoming more and more obvious and that it is imperative to implement an RMB exchange rate reform.Since it requires time to accomplish the property right reform of the main parts of transaction as well as to improve the trading variety of the foreign exchange market,the exchange rate reform has to be based on three principles: initiative,control and step-by-step progress. In determining the path to follow and making strategic decisions,we should start with the microstructure of the market.The reform should focus on the following aspects: reinforcing the property right reform of the main parts of the micro-transaction market;broadening the scope and the basis of the foreign exchange market;strengthening the fundamentals that determine the RMB exchange rates;promoting the opening of capital accounts;implementing a more elastic RMB exchange rate system.