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Reinforced urns and the subdistribution beta‐Stacy process prior for competing risks analysis
Authors:Andrea Arf  Stefano Peluso  Pietro Muliere
Institution:Andrea Arfé,Stefano Peluso,Pietro Muliere
Abstract:In this paper, we introduce the subdistribution beta‐Stacy process, a novel Bayesian nonparametric process prior for subdistribution functions useful for the analysis of competing risks data. In particular, we (i) characterize this process from a predictive perspective by means of an urn model with reinforcement, (ii) show that it is conjugate with respect to right‐censored data, and (iii) highlight its relations with other prior processes for competing risks data. Additionally, we consider the subdistribution beta‐Stacy process prior in a nonparametric regression model for competing risks data, which, contrary to most others available in the literature, is not based on the proportional hazards assumption.
Keywords:Bayesian nonparametrics  competing risks  prediction  reinforcement  subdistribution beta‐Stacy  urn process
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