洞庭湖区农业绿色全要素生产率增长时空特征及影响因素分析

采用清单分析法对洞庭湖农业面源污染进行核算,然后将其纳入农业全要素生产率(TFP)分析框架测度洞庭湖区农业绿色全要素生产率(GTFP)的时空变化,并对其收敛性进行检验,同时运用Tobit回归模型对农业GTFP的影响因素进行分析,结果显示:考察期内洞庭湖区农业GTFP呈不稳定增长特征,主要由技术进步贡献,技术效率却有所恶化;从湖区内部看,岳阳和常德的农业GTFP都有所增长,益阳轻微恶化;岳阳、益阳考虑环境因素的农业TFP增长比不考虑环境因素时低,但是常德却要高;GTFP不存在明显的α收敛现象,且呈现出显著的波动特征,存在绝对β收敛;农村经济发展水平的提高、财政支农支出的增加会有效提升农业GTFP,而城镇化率、受灾率、工业化率、人均播种面积、机械化水平对农业GTFP的增长有抑制作用。

A Study on the Spatial-Temporal Characteristics and Influence Factors of the Growth of Agricultural Green Total Factor Productivity in Dongting Area

By adopting the inventory analysis method,the agricultural non-point source pollution in Dongting Lake area has been checked.Under the framework of agricultural TFP,the spatial-temporal change of GTFP of Dongting Lake has been analyzed and its convergence has been tested.The influencing factors of agricultural GTFP has been analyzed by utilizing Tobit regression model.The study shows that the agricultural GTFP in Dongting Lake area has been growing unsteadily during the investigation period,mainly because of technological development.However,the technical efficiency has deteriorated.Seen from the inside of the lake area,the agricultural GTFP of Yueyang and Changde has increased while that of Yiyang has slightly decreased.In Yueyang and Yiyang,the growth of agricultural TFP is lower when environmental factors are not considered than that when environmental factors are considered;in Changde,the result is the opposite.GTFP shows no obviousα-convergence,but it shows obvious fluctuation and absoluteβ-convergence.The improvement of rural economic development level and the increase of financial support to agriculture would effectively improve the agricultural GTFP,while urbanization,disaster,industrialization,sown area per capita and mechanization would hinder the growth of agricultural GTFP.