中国省际人口流动与人力资本流动差异性分析

人力资本流动与人口流动相关却不相同,本文采用2010-2016年全国流动人口动态监测数据,从流动方向和流动强度两方面对我国省际人口流动引致的人力资本流动现象加以研究。结果表明从流动方向分析,各省人口净流动方向基本呈现时间一致性并且流入流出区域具有稳定性。在调查期间人口净流出省份为16个,人口净流入省份为15个,没有明显变化。人力资本净流向与人口净流向完全一致,但省际人口净流向与高级人力资本净流向并不完全一致,山西、广西、重庆等省市的高级人力资本净流向始终与总人力资本净流向相反。本文采用流出流入比率和迁移选择中心两种指标测算人力资本流动强度,结果基本一致。人力资本流动中心与人口流动中心分布均较为固定。2010年人力资本流动强度最大的省份在2016年的流动强度也更强,流动强度在省际呈现惯性和马太效应。人力资本流入最强地区包括北京、天津、上海三个直辖市,人力资本流出最强省份始终包括安徽、四川、河南等省份。以人力资本流出弹性衡量人力资本流出强度与人口流出强度的相对强弱,东部地区、东北地区省份人力资本的流出强度始终大于人口流出强度,西部地区省份差异较大。考虑各省近五年经济增长状况,人口流动或者人...

Analysis on the Difference between Inter-provincial Population Mobility and Human Capital Mobility in China

Human capital mobility is both related and different from the population mobility. Using the2010-2016 national migrant dynamic monitoring data,this paper studies the phenomenon of human capital mobility caused by inter-provincial population movement in China from the perspective of direction and intensity. The results show that the net mobility direction of the population in each province is basically time-consistent,and in-migrant and out-migrant have stability. During the survey period,there were 16 provinces with a net out-migrant and 15 provinces with a net in-migrant,and the net mobility of human capital was completely consistent with the population mobility. However,the net mobility of inter-provincial population is not completely consistent with that of senior human capital. The net mobility of senior human capital in Shanxi,Guangxi,and Chongqing is always opposite to that of total human capital. The human capital mobility intensity was measured by the two indicators of out-migrant and in-migrant ratio and migration selection,and the results were basically the same. The central area of human capital mobility is more consistent with the distribution of population mobility. In 2010,the provinces with the highest human capital mobility intensity also had stronger mobility intensity in 2016,and the mobility intensity showed inertia and Matthew effect between provinces. The regions with the strongest human capital in-migrant include Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai and other three municipalities directly under the Central Government and ethnic minority areas. The provinces with the strongest human capital out-migrant always include Anhui,Sichuan,Henanandotherprovinces.The human capital out-migrant elasticity measures the relative strength of human capital out-intensity and population out-intensity. The out-intensity of human capital in the eastern provinces and northeastern provinces is always greater than the population out-intensity,and the provinces in the western regions have large differences. In connection with the economic growth of the provinces in the pastfiveyears,the impact of population mobility or human capital mobility on economic growth is non-linear.