Trends in environmental lead exposure and troubled youth, 1960-1995: an age-period-cohort-characteristic analysis

Beginning in the mid-1980s and extending into the early 1990s, the United States experienced a wave of increased youth violence and teenage pregnancy. Nevin (2000) proffers a cohort-based explanation that these trends can be attributed to corresponding trends in gasoline lead exposure during the youths' early years. He contends that the increased consumption of adversely impacted their intelligence levels (IQs). This decreased their intellectual ability, resulted in poor decisions made during their teen and young adult years, and in turn, led to disproportionally high level of criminal involvement and unwed pregnancies among this cohort. The present study evaluates Nevin's causal model by testing the connection between trends in lead exposure and youthful problem behavior with age-period-cohort-characteristic (APCC) models. Our research finds no support for this cohort explanation.