征地冲突风险作用路径研究

借鉴风险理论，分析征地冲突风险因素、征地冲突后果；结合实践及以往研究成果提出假设，构建征地冲突风险作用路径模型，对征地冲突风险因素、征地冲突后果的作用路径进行实证分析，探寻征地冲突风险因素之间、征地冲突风险因素与征地冲突后果之间的作用路径。研究表明，征地程序、征地补偿分配、征地矛盾调解三大冲突风险因素对征地冲突后果产生直接影响，影响程度分别为0.283、0.447、0.073。征地监督冲突风险因素、征地矛盾调解冲突风险因素对征地冲突后果产生间接影响，影响程度分别为0.340、0.324。提出从征地补偿分配模式、征地监督机制、征地矛盾调解机制、征地补偿程序规范等方面制定征地冲突风险控制策略。

Study on Function Path of Land Expropriation Conflict Risks

Based on risk theory and combination of practice and previous study,this paper analyzes land expropriation conflict risk factors and conflict consequences,builds hypothesis and constructs the path model of conflict risk to empirically study the conflict factors and path of conflict consequences with the purpose of finding the acting path of conflict risk factors and the consequences.The result shows that land expropriation procedure,distribution of land expropriation compensation and mediation of land requisition contradiction have direct impacts on the conflict consequences,their respective influencing degrees are 0.283,0.447 and 0.073.Land supervision and conflict risk factors in land requisition contradiction mediation have indirect effects on the conflict consequences,their respective influencing degrees are 0.340 and 0.324.Therefore,this paper proposes several strategies on how to control land expropriation conflict risks from such ways as land expropriation compensation model,mechanisms of land expropriation supervision and conflict mediation,the standardization of land expropriation and compensation process.