ELECTORAL CYCLES AND THE EARNINGS OF FEDERAL BUREAUCRATS

This paper analyzes the relationship between the timing of federal elections and the pay raises received by civilian employees of the federal government. The theoretical framework discusses how electoral wage cycles are generated as a result of optimizing behavior on the part of voters, bureaucrats, and the government. The empirical analysis uses a time series of wage rates for the twenty-eight largest federal agencies over the period 1961–1978. The study indicates that pay hikes during the Presidential election year are significantly greater (about 2 to 3 percent higher) than bureaucratic pay raises in other years.