基于间断-平衡理论的中国未成年人保护政策变迁

间断-平衡理论被西方学者广泛用来研究政策制定和政策变迁模式，分析政策变迁长期渐进平衡与短期间断突变的糅合。运用此理论分析1978年以来中国未成年人保护政策变迁，发现其历经政策平衡期（1978—1985）—政策间断期（1986—1999）—政策平衡期（2000—2005）—政策间断期（2006—2012）—政策平衡期（2013年至今）五个阶段，呈现出明显的间断式平衡发展脉络。在我国稳定的政治制度与有限理性决策模式双重基础之上，宏观政治领导人的更替、社会舆论的影响、焦点的未成年人案件和“局外人”动员成为决策系统注意力转移的触发因素，政策图景的变化、注意力的转移和政策制定者的路径依赖均能有效推动政策垄断的建立与崩溃，最终形成未成年人保护政策的间断式平衡变迁。间断-平衡理论解释中国公共政策问题还存在理论局限，应合理修正，从而使之更有效解释中国公共政策变迁规律与动力。

China's Minor Protection Policy Based on Punctuated-equilibrium Theory

Punctuated-equilibrium theory is widely used by western scholars to study policy-making and policy-change patterns,analyzing the combination of long-term gradual equilibrium and short-term discontinuous mutation of policy change.The research group analyzed the changes of China's minor protection policy since 1978 by using the punctuated-equilibrium theory.It is found that it has gone through five stages:policy balance period (1978-1985),policy break period (1986-1999),policy balance period (2000-2005),policy break period (2006-2012),and policy balance period (2013-present),showing a clear punctuated-equilibrium development.On the basis of China's stable political system and limited rational decision-making model,the replacement of macro-political leaders,the influence of public opinion,the focus of minor cases and the mobilization of "outsiders" are the triggers of the attention transfer of the decision-making system.The change of policy picture,the transfer of attention and the path dependence of policy makers can effectively promote the establishment and collapse of policy monopoly.Finally,it forms the punctuated-equilibrium change of the protection policy of minors.The punctuated-equilibrium theory still has theoretical limitations in explaining China's public policy issues,which should be revised reasonably so as to effectively explain the law and motivation of China's public policy changes.