粮食供求波动的轨迹、走势及其平抑措施

1949年以来我国出现了7次粮食供求波动,而每次波动都有其复杂的成因。我国的粮食产量曲线是一条上升的直线叠加了一条波动曲线,而进入市场经济之后的1984～1999年其波动特征更有规律:长周期为6年,短周期为3年(为不对称波,上升1年,下降2年)。为此,建立傅立叶级数、龚伯兹方程等预测模型,对未来10年我国粮食供求进行预测,结果表明大部分年份粮食将供不应求。因此,可采取增加粮食产量、政府市场干预、提高抗灾能力等平抑措施。

On the Fluctuating Path and Developing Trends in Grain Supply & Demand and Its Stabilization Countermeasures

China has seen seven fluctuations in grain supply and demand since 1949. Each fluctuation has its own complex causes. The curve of China's grain output is a rising straight line with a fluctuating curve added. However, between 1984-1999, especially after China took the policy of market economy, one can see the fluctuation law: the long cycle lasted 6 years, while the short one 3 years (an unsymmetrical wave, 1 year rising and 2 years declining). Thus, we build such models as Fu Liye Series and Gonbez Equation and predict the grain supply and demand in the coming 10 years in China. The result shows that most of the years the grain supply will fall short of demand. Thus, we should adopt some stabilization countermeasures by increasing grain output, intervening the market by the government and enhancing the ability of fighting natural calamities.