中国生育水平的间接估计

中国的生育水平存在争议。使用普查和调查数据,采用四种间接估计方法,估计了中国的生育水平。研究发现,变量-r方法得到1990—2010年的总和生育率在1.5—1.6,低于1.7。单次普查数据的P/F比值方法估计1990年、2000年和2010年的总和生育率分别为2.29、1.43和1.50,而两次普查数据的P/F方法估算1990—2000年和2000—2010年间总和生育率分别为1.35和1.32,低于普遍认为的1.5左右的水平。逆存活分析方法推算的数据显示,1982年、1990年和2000年的总和生育率分别为2.95、2.63和1.54,分别比历次普查公布的数据高出0.3左右。预测模拟方法显示,2000—2010年总和生育率在1.5—1.6之间波动,2010年之后基本在1.5之下。考虑到2018年和2019年出生人口数量分别为1523万和1465万,总和生育率已经降低到1.5以下。考虑到长期低生育水平对于人口发展的影响,中国需要认真审视当前的人口形势和政策,及时调整政策以达到人口社会长期可持续均衡发展。

Indirect Estimation of Fertility Levels in China

The fertility level in china is controversial.In this paper we used four indirect estimation methods to examine the fertility level in China.We found that the total fertility rate(TFR)in 1990-2010 obtained by the variable-r method is around 1.5-1.6,below 1.7.The TFRs of 1990,2000,and 2010 estimated using the P/F ratio method and the single census data are 2.29,1.43,and 1.50,respectively.However,with the P/F method using two census data,the average TFRs in 1990-2000 and 2000-2010 are 1.35 and 1.32 respectively,which are inferior to which are the generally accepted level(around 1.5).The TFRs estimated by the reverse survival method in 1982,1990,and 2000 are 2.95,2.63,and 1.54 respectively,which are higher than the figures by the census data by 0.3.The method of projection simulation indicated a TFR between 1.5 and 1.6 in 2000-2010,and a TFR of below 1.5 after 2010.In 2018 and 2019,only 15.23 million and 14.65 million were born.Meanwhile,the TFR should have been reduced to below 1.5.Provided the profound effect of long-term low fertility level on population development,China should examine carefully the current demographic situation and adjust the family planning policy in due course so as to achieve long-term sustainable and balanced development of population and society.