中国老年人家庭储蓄成因的实证研究——基于遗产动机的视角

本文通过理论模型与实证分析考察遗产动机对我国老年人家庭储蓄的影响。首先,基于生命周期假说的理论框架考察遗产动机存在的情况下家庭储蓄可能发生的变化,模型演算结果显示遗产动机与家庭储蓄存在正向相关关系;其次,基于理论模型,本文利用日本国立大阪大学实施的《关于生活偏好与满足度调查》中有关中国城市地区调查的数据构建遗产动机、预防动机、时间偏好率等说明变量,对我国55岁及以上(准)老年人家庭的金融资产积累率、固定资产积累率、金融资产存量以及固定资产存量的影响进行计量分析。在中国的(准)老年人家庭中,具有遗产动机比无遗产动机在其家庭的金融资产积累率上显著高出了约8%,在固定资产存量方面,具有遗产动机的家庭比无遗产动机家庭显著高出约29.1%;预防动机指数每增加1个单位,家庭固定资产积累率和存量分别显著增加约3.3%和3.5%;高时间偏好率家庭比低时间偏好率家庭在金融资产积累率上显著减少6.8%。基于遗产动机可能会阻碍我国经济增长方式向消费主导型转变,扩大世代间贫富差距以及抬高作为遗产商品的价格,甚至出现价格泡沫等负面影响的考量,开征遗产税是缓解遗产动机所引起的负面效应的途径之一。

An Empirical Study on the Causes of Family Savings of the Elderly in China:Based on the Perspective of Bequest Motive

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of bequest motive on the household savings of the elderly in China by using a combination of theoretical models and empirical analysis.Based on the theoretical framework of the life cycle hypothesis,this paper examines the possible changes in the house⁃hold savings rate in the presence of bequest motive.Model calculation results show a positive correlation be⁃tween bequest motive and household savings.Subsequently,based on the theoretical model,we apply with the data on the survey of China’s urban areas in the Survey of Preference Parameters Study conducted by the National Osaka University of Japan to construct independent variables such as bequest motive,precau⁃tionary motive,and time preference rate to quantitative analysis of the impacts of these factors on financial asset accumulation rate,fixed asset accumulation rate,financial asset stock and fixed asset stock in China’s household within aged 55 and over.The analysis results are as follows:(1)The household financial asset accumulation rate and fixed assets stock within bequest motive are significantly higher than those who with⁃out bequest motive 8% and 29.1% accordingly.(2)For each additional unit of the precautionary motive,the household fixed asset accumulation rate and stock increased significantly by 3.3% and 3.5% respective⁃ly.(3)The high time preference rate household is significantly reduced by 6.8% over the low time prefer⁃ence rate household in the financial asset accumulation rate.Aiming at the above regression results,this pa⁃per also constructs mixed data to test the robustness of the financial asset stock and fixed asset stock of el⁃derly households over 60 years old.The results of the robustness test are basically consistent with the above regression results,that is,the bequest motive significantly promotes the rise of(quasi)elderly household savings.Based on considerations of the impact of bequest motive that may hinder China’s economic growth from shifting to a consumption-oriented mode,widening the gap between the rich and the poor,raising the price of heritage goods,and even price bubbles.This article considers that levying a heritage tax is one of the ways to alleviate the negative effects caused by the bequest motive.