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SEIR Model to address the impact of face masks amid COVID-19 pandemic |
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| Authors: | Ahmed Maged Abdullah Ahmed Salah Haridy Arthur W Baker Min Xie |
| Institution: | 1. Department of Advanced Design and Systems Engineering, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong;2. Department of Systems Innovation, Graduate School of Engineering Science, Osaka University, Suita, Japan
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Benha University, Banha, Egypt;3. Department of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates Department of Mechanical Engineering, Benha University, Banha, Egypt;4. Duke University School of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Durham, North Carolina, USA Duke Center for Antimicrobial Stewardship and Infection Prevention, Durham, North Carolina, USA;5. Department of Advanced Design and Systems Engineering, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Center for Intelligent Multidimensional Data Analysis, Hong Kong Science Park, Shatin, Hong Kong |
| Abstract: | Early in the pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), face masks were used extensively by the general public in several Asian countries. The lower transmission rate of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Asian countries compared with Western countries suggested that the wider community use of face masks has the potential to decrease transmission of SARS-CoV-2. A risk assessment model named Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered (SEIR) model is used to quantitatively evaluate the potential impact of community face masks on SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number (R0) and peak number of infectious persons. For a simulated population of one million, the model showed a reduction in R0 of 49% and 50% when 60% and 80% of the population wore masks, respectively. Moreover, we present a modified model that considers the effect of mask-wearing after community vaccination. Interestingly mask-wearing still provided a considerable benefit in lowering the number of infectious individuals. The results of this research are expected to help public health officials in making prompt decisions involving resource allocation and crafting legislation. |
| Keywords: | coronavirus infectious disease R0 risk assessment SEIR |