农村居民贫困代际传递变动趋势研究

从动态视角考察贫困在代际间传递,对于消除长期贫困的政策制定具有参考价值。利用1988—2013年CHIP数据,分析了不同出生年代农村居民贫困代际传递变动趋势,结果显示:以绝对贫困为标准,贫困代际传递程度在60后、70后、80后人群间大为改善,但相对贫困代际传递有恶化趋势,且在区域分布上突出表现在西部地区。运用中间变量法和Altham分析方法的进一步分析发现,教育不平等和职业固化均随时代演进而增强,对贫困代际传递变迁具有较强解释力。

Study on the Trend of Intergenerational Transmission of Poverty among Rural Residents

From a dynamic perspective, the study of poverty transmission between generations is of reference value for policy-making to eradicate long-term poverty. Based on the CHIP data from the year 1988 to 2013, this paper examines the change of intergenerational transmission of poverty among rural residents in different birth years. The result shows that, with the absolute poverty as the standard, the degree of intergenerational transmission of poverty is greatly reduced among people who were born from 1960s to 1980s. However, that of relative poverty tends to rise, and the regional distribution increases in sequence in the west. Besides, this paper uses the intermediate variable method and the Altham analysis method to do further analysis. It is found that the educational inequality and occupational solidification are enhanced with the development of the times, so this provides a strong explanatory for the intergenerational transmission changes.