Some non-parametric tests for duration dependence: an application to UK business cycle data

A distinction between Fisher's implied data-generating process for Monte Carlo cycles and the more general Markov process leads to non-parametric tests for duration dependence. Tests are based on the method of moments, Tauchen's generalized method of moments (GMM) procedure, and a statistic whose null distribution probability limit is zero. Using finite-sample critical values obtained by Monte Carlo methods, our test results are remarkably consistent. The null distribution of the GMM test statistic for samples of the size considered is distinctly non-normal, so that asymptotic critical values give erroneous results. The tests are applied to UK business cycle data for 1854-1992. There is evidence for duration dependence in expansions but not in contractions.