基于市盈率、预期和供求关系的股价行为动态分析模型

针对现有股票价格模型的局限性,提出一个基于市盈率、预期及供求关系的股票价格行为动态分析模型。本模型考察市盈率、预期对股票市场供求关系的影响,探讨股票价格行为与投资者对公司未来每股收益的预期之间的关系,分析现行市盈率及动态市盈率与投资者普遍认可的合理市盈率之间的偏差对上述关系的影响,得出股票价格是在投资者对公司未来每股收益不断预期和矫正,以及对现行市盈率、动态市盈率与他们认可的合理市盈率之间偏差的不断判断和调整的基础上和由此导致的供求力量的作用下,围绕市场普遍认可的合理市盈率而上下波动的结论。

Dynamic model about stock price behavior based on ratio of price-earnings, expectation of investors and supply-demand laws

Directing at the shortcomings of the factors model and the internal value model of stock price,the paper put forward a dynamic model that was based on the internal value of stock,the ratio of price-earnings,the expectation of investors,and the supply-demand laws.The model investigated the influence of the ratio of price-earnings and the expectation of investors on the supply and the demand of the stock market,of which the paper discussed the relationship between the stock price behavior and the investors' expectation of earnings per share,and the investors' judgment of the difference between the actual ones and their held ratios of price-earnings.At the end,the paper concluded that the stock price fluctuates around all investors' held price-earnings ratios under the demand force and the supply force based on their expectation and their judgment mentioned above.