人口风险指标的建构与评估方法

文章从“风险（risk）”概念出发，分析了对风险概念两特征“不确定性”和“后果”的不同理解，及对风险指标建构的启示；对“人口风险”概念的意义维度进行了操作性说明，认为人口风险包含“人口系统面临的风险”和“与人口系统相关的风险”两个维度；在此基础上建构了一套人口风险指标体系。设计了相应的风险评估方法。

Construction of An indicators System to Evaluate the Population Risks

Population risk is a newly discussed concept in population studies. Scholars have different understandings of two characteristics of the concept of the risk： uncertainty and outcome and the evaluation of population risks must consider the uncertainty and outcome of risk. Population risk should contains two dimensions： the risks of population system and risks associated with the population system. The paper constructs a population risk index system and designs a set of methods for population risk assessment.