独生子女家庭结构演变与养老方案选择研究①——以安徽省为例

独生子女家庭关系简单、脆弱，具有很强的风险性，为此引起学界和政府高度关注。文章利用2010年全国第六次人口普查数据资料，利用生命表方法构建独生子女家庭生命表．并推算丧子家庭、丧偶家庭、单人家庭等各类家庭结构演变趋势。得出：独生子女家庭中，丧子家庭在子女60岁时达到高峰，比例达到3．1％，其中丧子的父母单人家庭比例达到高峰值2．6％，丧子的父母空巢家庭在独生子女50岁达到高峰1．1％：独生子女单亲家庭（丧父或丧母）在独生子女55岁时达到峰值50％。不同的独生子女家庭，有着不同的养老需求，政府应该根据不同的家庭属性设置多样化的养老支持方案。

Research on the Structure Evolution of the Only Child Family and the Selection of Pension Programs: A Study in Anhui Province

The only child families are simple and vulnerable facing various risks and attract the attention of academia and governments.Using the data of the sixth national census in 2010, the paper establishes a life table of the only child family, to estimate the evolution of the families losing child, widowed families and single families. Among the only families, the proportion of losing child family is when the child gets to 60 years old, it can be as high as up to 3.1%, the single families of the losing child families can be as high as 2.6%. The empty-nest families among the losing child families can be as high as 1.1% when the only child gets to 50 years old. The proportion of single parent family among the only child families is going to as high as 50% when the only child gets to 55 years old. The different types of such only child families have different demanding of elderly supports, government should work up proper pension scheme accordingly to meet their needs of elderly supports.