中国能源强度变化因素争论与剖析

改革开放以来,我国在保持经济快速增长的同时能源强度持续下降,引起了国内外学者的广泛关注。总结近年来国内外关于中国能源强度下降原因的研究,结果显示持有技术进步为主要因素的观点较多,因素分解法是国内外学者研究的主要工具。以因素分解法的基本模型进行研究,影响我国能源强度变化的结构因素被普遍低估。建议应分阶段使用因素分解法对我国能源强度变化进行跟踪研究。

Dispute and Analysis of the Factors about China's Energy Intensity Changing

Since the launch of open-door policy and economic reform,China's energy intensity has declined continuously,while China's national economy has been growing rapidly.A variety of domestic and foreign studies have focused on this issue.This paper reviews the domestic and foreign studies about the reason of the decline in China's energy intensity.Our results show that most of authors attribute the decrease to technology improvement and decomposition analysis is the main method in these studies.Based on the study of the basic models of decomposition analysis,this paper discusses domestic and foreign studies.Our main conclusion is that structure factor was underestimated in most studies.This paper recommends that there have been many periods since 1978 and decomposition analysis should be used in different periods.