中国农村贫困的动态研究

 基于CHNS的八轮农村家庭收入调查数据，本文使用贫困发生率和平方缺口指数对农村贫困进行了实证分析，并把贫困变动分解为长期贫困效应、脱贫效应和返贫效应。实证结论表明，虽然长期贫困发生率呈现明显下降趋势，但是近期长期贫困的平方缺口指数表现出一定程度上升；脱贫效应是减少贫困的主要因素，返贫效应则是加剧贫困的诱因。此外，匿名性与非匿名性的增长率显示，匿名性低估了低收入阶层的实际收入增长率，从而高估了实际贫困。

Dynamic Study on Rural Poverty in China

Based on the eight survey data of CHNS, this paper studies the rural poverty by poverty headcount ratio and the squared poverty gap index. This paper gives a decompositive formula which turns the poverty change into three parts: long term poverty, relieving from poverty and returning into poverty. The empirical results are: (1)Though poverty headcount ratio of long term is decreasing, the squared poverty gap index is a little increasing. (2) Relieving from poverty is the main cause of poverty decrease, and returning into poverty is the main reason of poverty increase. (3)Compare anonymity with non-anonymity, the growth rate of the low income class is underestimated and the actual poverty is overestimated.