面板数据视角下农村劳动力外流对粮食生产的影响

基于2001—2012年年鉴数据，利用面板数据模型，从粮食主销区、主产区和平衡区省级层面分析我国农村劳动力流出对粮食生产的影响。研究结果表明：粮食主产区和平衡区农村劳动力依然过剩，粮食生产劳动力投入与粮食产出呈负相关，说明这两个区域农村剩余劳动力外流对促进其粮食生产发展有利；粮食主销区农村劳动力出现短缺，粮食生产劳动力投入量与粮食产出呈正相关，说明粮食主销区农村劳动力继续外流不利于其粮食生产的发展；就全国整体而言，农村劳动力依然过剩，说明加快农村劳动力外流有利于粮食生产的可持续发展。

The Effect of Rural Labor Outflow on Grain Production based on Panel Data

From 2001 to 2012 yearbook and panel data model, the effects of rural labor outflow on grain production was analyzed from provincial level of the main grain sales and distribution as well as balanced areas. The research showed the following results: there are still superfluous rural labor in major grain producing areas and the balance areas, where grain production labor and grain yield was negative correlated, indicating rural labor outflow is favorable to the long-term grain production in the two areas. There are lacking rural labor in major food sales, where grain production labor and grain yield was positively correlated, indicating rural labor outflow is not conducive to the long-term grain production in major food sales areas. As for the whole country, there is still superfluous rural labor, which showed that speeding up the rural labor migration is conducive to sustainable grain development.