我国房地产市场周期波动谱分析及其实证研究

 本文以1998年1月至2009年12月的国房景气指数作为反映房地产市场周期波动的分析指标，针对普通的谱密度分析存在分辨率低的缺点，采用加窗平均周期图谱分析和多次分辨法相结合的方法，将各主周期分量单独分辨出来，并通过对序列进行三角函数拟合来确定各主要周期长度的准确值，发现我国房地产市场自1998年1月以来存在为期36个月的主周期和27个月的次周期波动，且该周期波动与我国房地产政策的周期性是密不可分的。最后，本文根据我国房地产市场的短周期波动特征，分别针对政府管理部门、房地产企业和购房者提出了相应的对策建议。

A Spectral Analysis of Fluctuations in China's Real Estate Market Cycle and its Empirical Study

This paper uses the national real estate prosperity index from Jan.1998 to Dec.2009 to reflect the cycle fluctuation of China’s real estate market. As the ordinary spectral analysis has poor resolution, we introduce a spectral estimation of combining periodogram windowing spectral estimation and one by one resolution method, and then fitting data with triangular function to identify the accurate cycles. Based on this we found that China’s real estate market had a first main cycle of 36 months and a second main cycle of 27 months since January 1998. Finally, according to the short cycle fluctuation of the real estate market, we proposed some suggestions to government administration, real estate corporation and consumers respectively.