The next decade in evaluation research

The field of evaluation research has developed rapidly in the past few years. Its growth is marked by:(1) establishment of an'entrepreneurial industry of considerable proportions; (2) emergence of a new profession as evidenced by the founding of professional associations, publication of books and journals, and the development of specialized training programs; (3) recognition of the importance of evaluation in the federal bureaucracy by the establishment of key executive positions in the various offices of the Secretaries; (4) quality control efforts by a variety of stakeholders and watchdog groups; and (5) efforts to address methodological problems and to maximize the dissemination and utilization of studies. In the future, continued federal funding in health, education, and welfare will be dependent on demonstrated program impact, and “sunset legislation.” Moreover, there will be fewer important “policy” evaluations and more administrative and managerial efforts. Evaluation questions, increasingly, will be specified either by Congress or the administering agency, including the setting of design and methodological requirements for studies. Opportunities for investigator-inspired studies and basic methodological development will decrease.