基于时空视角的私人汽车拥有量影响因素分析

随着国民经济的不断发展和人民收入的日益提高,我国居民私人汽车的拥有量正在不断攀升。首先选用1996年—2011年共16年全国私人汽车拥有量的时序数据,从时间角度,通过拟合回归模型,修正模型,得出：总体而言,城乡居民人民币储蓄存款余额、人口数量、社会消费品零售总额对私人汽车拥有量有显著影响,城镇居民可支配收入、轿车产量、公路里程、公共交通运营数量（不包括地铁）的影响并不明显。此外,在国家实施限行限牌等政策时,固定资产投资总额对私人汽车拥有量成负向影响。在此基础上,选用2012年全国31个省、市、自治区的私人汽车拥有量的截面数据,从空间角度分析得到：除上述显著影响变量外,航空因素（航空客运量）、地铁控制变量和区域控制变量对我国私人汽车拥有量有显著影响。最后,结合时空角度分析所得出的结论,为相关部门合理配置资源以及安排基础建设方面提出一些有益的政策建议。

The Factor Analysis of the Owning Quantity of Private Cars from the Perspective of Time and Space

With the rising of China＇s national economy and the increase of people＇s income, residents＇ owning quantity of private cars is rising in China. In this paper, first, the writer selects some related data between 1996 and 2011 for analysis. From the perspective of time and through the fitting regression model and modified model, it is concluded that, in general, the influence of RMB savings deposits of urban and rural residents, population and total retail sales of social consumer goods have a significant effect on the owning quantity of private cars. The influence of urban residents＇ disposable income, car production, highway mileage and the number of public transportation is not obvious. In addition, when the government practices some new policies, such as the traffic control via odd and even license numbers and total investment in fixed assets, have a negative impact on private car owning quantity. Then, based on the result, the paper chooses the private car owning data of 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions. Through analyzing of these data, it is concluded that, in addition to the above-mentioned variables, the airlines passengers number, control variable of subway and regional control variable have a significant effect on the owning quantity of private cars. Finally, based on the conclusion, the paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations to the related department on the resource allocation and infrastructure.