高风险、高成本背景下棉农种植决策分析

依据对新疆自治区及新疆生产建设兵团341户棉农调查，通过分别构建Logit二元选择模型，分析在高市场风险、高生产成本等复杂背景下，棉农种植决策差异。研究结果表明，户主年龄、种植面积、亩均成本、棉花单产、种植经验、对成本预期6项指标对兵团及自治区棉农种植决策均有着显著影响。不同的是棉花收入占家庭总收入比重仅在自治区模型中通过显著性检验，而是否机采也仅在兵团模型中通过了显著性检验。文章基于此实证结果并结合相关理论分析，提出促进棉农积极植棉，增收的相关建议。

Planting Decisions of Cotton Farmers in A High Risk and High Cost Background

Based on the date from questionnaires made on 341 cotton farmers in Xinjiang province and Xinjiang Production and Construction Crops, this paper analyzes the different planting decisions in the background of high market risk and increasing planting cost using a Logit model. The results show that 6 factors significantly influence cotton farmers＇ planting decisions. The divergence is that the proportion of cotton planting income accounted for the total household income only lay more impact in model of Xinjiang province, however applying machinery in cotton harvest lay more impact in model of Xinjiang Production and Construction Crops. According to the abovementioned empirical results and related theories, this paper proposes some suggestions on actively promoting income and arouse enthusiasm of cotton farmers.