A Gompertz model for birth interval analysis |
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| Authors: | J A Ross Shantha MAdhavan |
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| Institution: | 1. Center for Population and Family Health , Columbia University , Jakarta , Indonesiapresently attached to the National Family Planning Coordinating Board, United Nations Development Programme;2. Research Associate at the Department of Public Health , Cornell University Medical College , New York , N.Y. , 10021 , USA |
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| Abstract: | During recent years birth intervals have been analysed on a life table basis. This method retains both closed and open intervals, and so reflects behaviour that deliberately avoids the next birth entirely. When life tables are prepared separately for each birth order, markedly different patterns of movement toward the next birth can appear from one parity to the next. This is illustrated for Korean survey data, with historical trends given across marriage cohorts. A Gompertz model is found to fit the family of curves that show the cumulative proportion giving birth within each interval closely. Its three parameters have direct intuitive interpretations, one being equal to the parity progression ratio and the other two controlling the pace of childbearing before and after the point of peak activity within the interval. The model is useful for interpolation and projection, and provides an efficient summary of the otherwise cumbersome detail given in a life table. Testing against additional data sets is suggested. |
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