A Relational Gompertz Model of Male Fertility: Development and Assessment |
| |
| Authors: | W John Paget Ian M Timæus |
| |
| Institution: | 1. Swiss Federal Office of Public Health, Division of Medicine, Hess Strasse 27E, 3097, Bern-Liebefeld, Switzerland;2. Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT;3. Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT |
| |
| Abstract: | Brass has proposed a relational Gompertz model of female fertility which, in combination with the standard fertility distribution developed by Booth, has proved useful in a range of applications, such as indirect estimation, demographic modelling, and population projections. This paper develops a standard distribution of male fertility for use in conjunction with the relational Gompertz model. The derivation of the standard takes advantage of the similarity between the shape of male and female fertility distributions. It entails ‘stretching’ the female standard, so that it extends to age 80, and then transforming it, using the Gompertz model into a pattern which is more typical of male fertility distributions in the developing world. An assessment of this new standard by fitting the relational Gompertz model based on it to a series of male fertility distributions from diverse populations, suggests that it performs very well. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
|
|
