中国批发和零售业在产业链上位置的动态变迁

批发和零售业在国民经济中占有举足轻重的地位。基于2002—2017年中国投入产出表数据,运用产业上游度测度方法,实证研究了中国批发和零售业在产业链上位置的动态变迁。研究发现:在开放经济和封闭经济中,样本期内批发和零售业在产业链上的位置都存在明显波动的态势,服务于产业生产的能力不稳定;其中2007—2015年,批发和零售业的产业上游度变化趋势在开放经济中与封闭经济中基本相同,都呈现向产业链上游移动的趋势,批发和零售业服务于产业生产的能力在提升。总体来讲,批发和零售业在产业链上处于中游位置,服务于产业生产的能力在服务业中较为靠前;开放经济中的产业上游度明显大于封闭经济中的产业上游度;净出口增加对批发和零售业产业上游度上升具有促进作用。批发和零售业在国内产业链和全球产业链上的位置均存在着波动,其参与国内和全球产业分工的程度均呈现出不稳定性。要提高批发和零售业产业上游度,增强其服务于国内和全球生产过程的能力,提升其生产者服务业性质,必须实现批发和零售业的数字化转型,推动其多业态发展,提升其出口水平。

Dynamic Evolution of Position of China's Wholesale and Retail in Industrial Chain

The wholesale and retail industry plays an important role in the national economy.Based on the data from the I-O tables of Year 2002,2005,2007,2010,2012,2015 and 2017,using the measurement method of industrial upstreamness,we empirically study the dynamic evolution of the position of China's wholesale and retail in industrial chain.The research finds that,both in the open economy and in the close economy,there was the obvious fluctuation in the position of wholesale and retail in industrial chain during the years from 2002 to 2017,with unstable production capacity in service industry.From 2007 to 2015,the change trend of upstreamness of the wholesale and retail in the open economy is basically the same as in the close economy,all moving to the upstreamness of industrial chain,with the increasing production capacity of the wholesale and retail.Generally speaking,the wholesale and retail industry is in the midstream of industrial chain,and the production capacity of service industry would be rank the top.The industrial upstreamness in the open economy is significantly higher than that in the closed economy.The increase of net export promotes the industrial upstreamness of the wholesale and retail.There are fluctuations in the position of the wholesale and retail in domestic industrial chain and global industrial chain,and the degree of participation in the domestic and global industrial division is unstable.In order to improve the industrial upstreamness of the wholesale and retail,enhance its ability to serve the domestic and global production processes,and enhance the nature of producer service industry,it is necessary to realize the digital transformation of the wholesale and retail,promote its multi-industry development,and improve its export level.