Population policy in Mainland China

Population policy in Communist China has little demographic significance. It is of interest mainly for what it reveals about the nature of the administrative and decision making process in Peking. Although the evidence is often ambiguous, six fairly distinct phases of population policy can be distinguished, during which policy shifted from categoric denial of population problems to an endorsement of birth control and back to the denial of population problems. There are indications that the birth control campaign was first activated in response to fears of overpopulation, that it was abandoned during the “ leap forward ” in 1958 because the Chinese Communist leaders actually believed their economic expedients had achieved miraculous success, and that the recent absence of explicit policy reflects both a disillusionment with the “ leap forward ” and reluctance to resume openly the birth control campaign. Apparently, Peking is at present waiting hopefully for good news from the agricultural front before undertaking another major policy revision; if this hope is disappointed, the consequences may have great international significance.