人口老龄化、房价与住房空置率的影响研究

利用2007-2018年30个省级行政区（除西藏外）的面板数据，在分析人口老龄化、房价以及住房空置率三者传导机制的基础上，实证研究人口老龄化和房价对住房空置率的影响。结果表明：在全国层面上，人口老龄化和房价均对住房空置率有正向影响；在区域层面上，中部地区人口老龄化对住房空置率的影响最大，各区域房价对住房空置率的影响均为正向影响；中介效应表明，房价确实是人口老龄化影响住房空置率的中间桥梁。

A Study on the Impact of Population Aging, Housing Prices and Housing Vacancy Rate

At present, China is facing an accelerated phase of population aging, which has a series of problems in the housing market by affecting the age structure of the population. Based on the panel data of 30 provincial-level administrative regions (excluding Tibet) from 2007 to 2018, this paper empirically studies the aging of the population and the housing vacancy rate based on an analysis of the three mechanisms of population aging, housing prices and housing vacancy rate. The results show that at the national level, population aging and housing prices have a positive impact on housing vacancy rate; at the regional level, population aging in the central region has the greatest impact on housing vacancy rate, and the impact of housing prices on housing vacancy rate is positive in all regions; the mediation effect indicates that house prices are indeed the middle bridge between the aging of the population and the housing vacancy rate.