| 基于小波神经网络的国际铀资源价格趋势分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵玉,徐鸿,张坤,马智胜. 基于小波神经网络的国际铀资源价格趋势分析[J]. 东华理工大学学报(社会科学版), 2012, 0(2): 113-115 |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵玉 徐鸿 张坤 马智胜 |
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| 作者单位： | 东华理工大学经济管理学院;东华理工大学地质资源经济与管理研究中心 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社科基金项目“我国核资源需求峰值预测及分析研究(10BJY016)”;江西省高校人文社科重点研究基地招标项目“突发事件对核安全的影响与政府应对机制研究(JD1147)”及“铀矿资源产品的价格形成机制研究(JD1044)”支持完成 |
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| 摘 要： | 铀资源是核能发展的物质基础。研究国际铀资源价格的走势对制定我国核能开发及利用的政策和发展规划具有重要的参考价值。构建小波神经网络,预测了国际铀资源价格的趋势。通过比较发现小波神经网络的预测精度高于与之结构相同的传统BP网络以及时间序列模型。研究表明短期内国际铀资源价格将呈下降趋势,而2至5年内将呈现先抑后扬的趋势,但相比2006-2007年仍处于价格的低位,建议在这一时期逐步增加铀资源的战略储备。
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| 关 键 词： | 铀资源 价格 小波分析 小波神经网络 时间序列 |
Analysis of International Uranium Resource Price Trend Based on Wavelet Neural Network |
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| ZHAO Yu,XU Hong,ZHANG Kun,MA Zhi-sheng. Analysis of International Uranium Resource Price Trend Based on Wavelet Neural Network[J]. Journal of East China Institute of Technology, 2012, 0(2): 113-115 |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Yu XU Hong ZHANG Kun MA Zhi-sheng |
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| Affiliation: | 1,2(1.Department of Business & Management,East China Institute of Technology,Fuzhou 344000,China;2.Research Center of Geological Resource Economics and Management,East China Institute of Technology,Fuzhou 344000,China) |
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| Abstract: | Uranium resource is the material basis of nuclear energy.Forecasting the price of uranium is important for policy maker when making plans on development and utilization of nuclear energy.We forecast the international uranium resource price trend via wavelet neural network.Relatively,prediction accuracy of the wavelet neural network is higher than that of traditional BP network with the same structure and time series model.The study shows that the international uranium price would be downward in a short term.And it would be rising slowly in next 2-5 years.However,the price in next 2-5 years would be still lower than that in 2006-2007.China should increase the strategic reserve of uranium resource gradually in this period. |
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| Keywords: | uranium resource price wavelet analysis wavelet neural network time series |
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