我国经济增长的动力分析

分清拉动我国经济增长的主次因素,对于我国经济发展政策的制定有着积极的意义,而单从消费、投资和出口与GDP的比率关系不能充分说明问题.运用协整模型建立各因素与GDP的线性关系的方法具体分析各因素的变动对于我国经济增长的贡献大小,划分出具有说服力的影响我国经济发展的主次因素,并在此基础上提出推动我国经济发展的三点建议:(1)积极推动固定设备投资的同时,避免重复投资的发生;(2)完善各项社会保障措施,提高社会消费水平;(3)准确定位商品出口战略,协调好与各国的经贸关系.

The Impetus Analysis of the Economic Growth in China

There are three impetuses in a country's economic growth,investment,consumption,and export,which are known as the troika of economic development.According to their different contribution rates to the economic growth,modes of economic growth can be classified into three types: investment-pulling,consumption-pushing,and the export-oriented.These three modes are comparative.In fact,they exist together in the interaction.The difference between these modes lies in which impetus plays the most important role.Generally speaking,the investment-pulling mode is mainly suitable for the developing country which is at the stage of industrialization.The export-oriented mode is suitable for countries that have only a very small internal market.The consumption-pushing mode is suitable for developed countries with a mature market.In the over-all trend of the economic development of China,the investment rate is keeping a moderate rising rate,the export rate increases greatly,and the consumption rate is slowly on the descend.In China,the consumption rate takes the leading role while the investment rate and the export rate play subordinate roles.It's obvious that investment rate and export rate are about to overtake consumption rate,especially the export rate which is rising at a high speed.It differs from the American and Japanese economies which rely largely on their consumption.It is also different from the high-speed developing period of Japan when two impetuses played equally important roles.It seems that in resent years the three impetuses are together promoting the economic development,while consumption retains a small advantage but will be exceeded by the other two factors.Finding out each impetus' part in pushing the economic development has a positive sense for our country to make economic policy.Existing papers pay attention to analyzing the relationship between the three impetuses and economic growth,and make their conclusion by way of comparing the rates that each impetus takes,but this method doesn't illustrate the problem clear enough.We adopt the co-integration model to analyze the liner relationship between each impetus and GDP.Through analysis we find that the order of the three impetuses that effect the economic growth is consumption,export,and investment.At different periods the order changes.In the beginning period of the Reform(1979-1995),the order was consumption,export,and investment.In the later period of the Reform(1990-2005),the order is investment,consumption,and export.Our economy is largely a consumption-pushing mode,apparently reaching the level of the American and Japanese developing mode.However,from the analysis of economic development in different periods,we find that China is still an investment-pulling economy.There is a long way to go for it to achieve the developing mode of developed countries.We give our explanation about the changes in the order of the impetuses from the perspective of different stages of the Reform.After analyzing the different contributions of the three factors to our country's economic growth,and making a persuasive division in the order about the three impetuses,we bring out three suggestions for promoting our country's economy.1.encouraging the fixed-assets investment while trying to avoid overlapped investment.2.improving the social security measures and enhancing social consumption levels.3.accurately making the merchandise export policy and cooperating with other countries to keep a harmonious trade relationship.