世界经济再平衡中的中国经济走向及其政策取向

分析当前中国宏观经济运行走向及其政策取向,必须在世界经济再平衡的特殊分析框架下考察其内生性因素所起的作用。世界经济再平衡的核心是劳动力与其他要素配置的结构性矛盾。如果要实现世界经济再平衡,必须使这一结构性矛盾得以缓解。缓解这一结构性矛盾的出路,不在于迫使新兴经济体国家货币升值,而在于发达国家的劳动力市场竞争力的改善,从根本上来讲,将取决于一场目前尚无法预期的新一轮世界性技术革命的到来。因此,全球性经济复苏之路注定是漫长而曲折的。在世界经济再平衡过程中,中国经济同样受到外部冲击和内部结构性矛盾的困扰,游走在通胀与通缩的边缘,在迅速复苏的同时面临诸多压力和不确定性。因此,中国经济宏观调控与治理的取向在于预防滞胀风险,处理好短期与中长期、总量与结构的综合关系,其根本出路在于经济的转型。

The development trend of China's economy and policy during the rebalance process of world economy

To analyze the development trend of China＇s economy and policy,we should take the rebalancing world economy into account.The core of the rebalancing world economy is the structural conflicts of the configuration of labor and other elements.To alleviate this structural conflict,the developed countries should improve the competitiveness of labor markets instead of forcing the emerging economies to appreciate their currency.To improve the competitiveness of developed countries＇ labor markets,we should look forward to the new round of global technology revolution which is unpredicted.Therefore,the recovery road of world economy is bound to be long and tortuous.During the process of the rebalancing of world economy,the recovery of China＇s economy will also be puzzled by external shocks and internal structural contradictions and walk on the edge of inflation and deflation.Thus,China should prevent the risks of stagflation and handle the relationship between the short-term development and long-term development and between the volume and structure.The fundamental way of the recovery of China＇s economy is the transformation of economy.