2011年：宽松货币政策实施与退出的“滞胀”效应——来自2002～2010年货币存量变动研究的见解

通过对2002～2010年我国货币存量、价格波动与产出增长关系的实证研究,有两个重要的发现：一是一个高的货币存量增长率会带来物价上涨的趋势,而抑制物价上涨的根本之策是降低货币增长率;二是2009～2010年实施的宽松货币政策对产出增长的短期效应开始消褪,而价格则进入了一个上升通道,＂滞胀＂风险已经出现,因而中央银行转向降低通胀的一个明确的货币政策规则应是优选的政策目标。

2011:the stagflation effects of the implementation and withdrawal of loose monetary policy

This article made empirical research of the relationship among China＇s money stock,price volatility and output growth and achieved two important findings.The first finding is that high growth rate of money stock will lead to the rising trend of prices,thus we should reduce the growth rate of money growth to fundamentally inhibit the rise of price.The second finding is that the short-term effect of the loose monetary policy during 2009 to 2010 on the output growth had began to fade,price began to rise and the risk of stagflation had began to emerge.The central bank should prefer to the policy to reduce inflation.