Mortality and economic development over the course of modernization: an analysis of short-run fluctuations in Spain, 1850-1990

Distributed lag models are used to explore the issue of the importance of economic factors for demographic performance over the course of the demographic and economic modernization of Spain. Mortality indicators are generated by age, sex, and cause and are assessed in terms of shifts in Gross Domestic Product. During the pre-transitional period, links between mortality and economic performance were simultaneous and rather weak but in the expected direction, declining to near 0 by the beginning of the twentieth century. Afterwards the importance of economic shifts for mortality fluctuations increased dramatically and delayed effects began to predominate, only disappearing after 1950. The paper explains the increase in the importance of economic factors and the change in the lag structure in terms of the greater economic volatility of the 1915-1950 period, the progressive implantation of more efficient public health systems and their sensitivity to economic fluctuations, and improving levels of nutrition and general health.