| 现代实证性社会预警的探索 |
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| 引用本文： | 阎耀军.现代实证性社会预警的探索[J].社会,2005,25(4):156-168. |
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| 作者姓名： | 阎耀军 |
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| 作者单位： | 天津社科院社会学所副研究员 |
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| 摘 要： | 人类社会的社会预警活动,先后出现过神灵性预警、经验性预警、哲理性预警和实证性预警四种形式。神灵性预警是用占卜的方法,“视兆以知吉凶”(《辞源》,1979:431),这种在冥冥之中揣摩和聆听神的旨意的预警形式缺乏科学依据,自然是不足为凭的。经验性预警是利用多次重复发生的事件或现象,以简单的盲目比附来推断未来,这种方法由于不能找到事物之间必然的因果性联系,因而带有较大的偶然性和局限性。哲理性预警通过对社会发展规律的了解,用逻辑推断的方法预警未来,虽思辨深刻却缺乏实证基础,失之于笼统和抽象,不能满足当代社会的实用要求。中共…
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Exploration on a Modern Positive Social Alarming System |
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| Yan, Yaojun.Exploration on a Modern Positive Social Alarming System[J].Society,2005,25(4):156-168. |
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| Authors: | Yan Yaojun |
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| Abstract: | A new theoretical model of social alarming index system with its operational platforms was constructed on the basis of the research on modern positive social alarming systems at home and abroad. A retrospective evaluation of the state of social harmony and stability in China from 1985 to 2002 and a simulation of social alarming feedback loops empirically examined the effectiveness of this new social alarming index system. |
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| Keywords: | Positive social alarming system social harmony and stability theoretical model index system evaluation |
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