能源税征收对能源强度影响的CGE研究

运用一个中国可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型—MCHUGE模型,分别在短期和长期的时间框架下,对能源税的征收进行政策研究。研究表明,通过开征27元/吨标准煤的能源税,在短期和长期分别能使能源强度降低6.9%和6.99%,虽然在短期内对中国GDP增长及某些与能源关联度较高的产业造成了一定的负面冲击,但从长远发展来看,这种负面影响是能够接受的。对能源征税,总的来说有利于降低能源强度,优化产业结构,转变经济增长方式,促使国民经济可持续发展。

The Study on the Impacts of Energy Intensity Imposed by the Taxation of Energy Taxes: A CGE Approach

This paper use a dynamic CGE model-MCHUGE to evaluate the impacts of energy intensity imposed by the taxation of energy tax in China in both short run and long run. The simulation results show that by the taxation of energy tax with 27 Yuan per ton standard coal, China can reduce its energy intensity by 6.9% in the short run and 6.99% in the long run. Although such a behavior shall bring some negative results to the growth of GDP and other energy-highly-related industries in the short run, yet in the long run these side effects can be ignored. As a matter of fact, the taxation of energy tax could lower the energy intensity and optimize the product mix, which in turn shall change the way of economic growth and promote the sound and sustainable development of China's national economy.