Will welfare reform influence marriage and fertility? Early evidence from the ABC demonstration

A primary purpose of the 1996 welfare reform was to remove features of the existing welfare system that were believed to encourage out-of-wedlock childbearing. This paper presents evidence that the policy changes in one state did influence marriage and childbearing outcomes. Data from a random assignment test of Delaware's A Better Chance Program (ABC) show that, after only 18 months of operations, ABC had positive impacts on marital cohabitation among women who were under age 25 and those with less than 12 years of education. The reform also raised marriage expectations among women with less than 12 years of education, but led fewer better-educated women to expect to marry. Although ABC had only a small impact on actual fertility in one subgroup, it sharply reduced desires for more children among women with intermediate durations of past welfare receipt, women who were 25 of age or older, and those who had ever married.