Nonlinear models for ground-level ozone forecasting |
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Authors: | Email author" target="_blank">Silvano?BordignonEmail author Carlo?Gaetan Francesco?Lisi |
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Institution: | (1) Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche, Università di Padova, Via Cesare Battisti, 241/243, 35121 Padova, Italy |
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Abstract: | One of the main concerns in air pollution is excessive tropospheric ozone concentration. The aim of this work is to develop
statistical models giving shortterm forecasts of future ground-level ozone concentrations. Since there are few physical insights
about the dynamic relationship between ozone, precursor emissions and/or meteorological factors, a nonparametric and nonlinear
approach seems promising in order to specify the forecast models. First, we apply four nonparametric procedures to forecast
daily maximum 1-hour and maximum 8-hour averages of ozone concentrations in an urban area. Then, in order to improve the forecast
performances, we combine the time series of the forecasts. This idea seems to give encouraging results.
This work was supported by a MURST grant. The authors would like to thank two anonymous referees for their helpful comments. |
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Keywords: | Ground-level ozone forecasting nonlinear time-series models combination of forecasts |
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