流动人口城市融合的碳排放效应

基于拓展的STRIRPAT模型分别从流动人口城市融合碳排放总量和新增量两个角度构建碳排放效应的人口模型和就业模型,研究发现,流动人口城市融合碳排放总量呈现不断增加的态势,不过每个流动人口城市融合的净增碳排放成本却在下降,城市每融合一个流动人口,每年大约新增加0.3吨碳排放。研究还发现,老龄化、城镇化、人均GDP、城镇就业人员均对流动人口城镇融合碳排放总量有增加作用,而GDP能源强度则对流动人口融合碳排放总量有降低作用。此外,农业、建筑业和工业的碳排放总量对流动人口城市融合碳排放净增量存在显著影响。建议树立"低碳融合"和"绿色融合"的流动人口城市融合理念,在流动人口城市融合中纳入碳排放成本,建立流动人口城市融合的碳排放监测制度,重点关注工业(制造业)、建筑业和现代农业领域流动人口的"减排"。

The Carbon Emission Effect Brought about by the Fusion of Immigrants into the City

Based on the extended STRIRPAT model, this study constructs the population model and employment model of the carbon emission effect of the immigrants' fusion into the city.The results show that the total amount of carbon emission of the internal immigrants is increasing while the cost of net carbon emission for each immigrant is decreasing.Averagely, each immigrant produces 0.3 ton carbon emission.Factors, such as aging, urbanization, GDP per capita, and the total employment, can increase the carbon emission, while the GDP energy intensity has a negative effect on the carbon emission.Besides, carbon emission in agriculture, construction, and industry has a significant influence on the net increment of carbon emission by the immigrants.Therefore, we, both the researchers and policy makers, should have a notion of low carbon fusion and green fusion, and take account of the carbon emission cost by immigrants, and build a surveillance system for the examination of the immigrants' carbon emission, and focus on the carbon emission reduction in the key industries, such as the manufacture, construction, and modern agriculture.