The determinants of fertility in rural Peru: Program effects in the early years of the national family planning program

Using data from the 1991 Peru Demographic Health Survey, a linked Situation Analysis, and a unique region-level data set, this paper examines the determinants of fertility in rural Peru before and after the 1985 enactment of its National Policy on Population. The empirical framework combines a model of the timing and spacing of conceptions with a model of the timing of the placement of family planning services in communities in order to control for non-random placement of services. Results show the program helped reduce fertility post 1985. The magnitude of the effects is quantified with simulations. All correspondence to David Guilkey.We thank the editor and two referees for detailed comments on an earlier draft of this paper. Funding support for this project was provided by the MEASURE Evaluation Project under a Cooperative Agreement between the U.S. Agency for International Development and the Carolina Population Center (Number HRN-A-00-97-0018-00). The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not the sponsoring agency. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.