Economic conditions,marital status,and the timing of first births: Results for whites and blacks

Relatively little is known about the effects of aggregate economic conditions on first-birth timing. In this paper, we argue that aggregate economic conditions are important macrolevel forces driving the transition to parenthood. We develop and test a causal model, separately by race, in which economic conditions influence both marital status and first-birth timing. Our results indicate that economic conditions are significant predictors of both outcomes, with economic conditions for females having effects different from those for males. A particularly noteworthy finding is that favorable wage trajectories for females lead to a decreased likelihood of being married and slower birth timing (a finding opposite to that predicted on the basis of opportunity costs). For blacks, the majority of the effects of economic conditions on the transition to parenthood are direct, while for whites a significant proportion of effects are indirect through marital status.